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The fact that outmigration of Long Islanders caused a population decrease of 15.000 in the 12 months ending July 2022 has everyone stressing as if this was a surprise and that creating more housing is the solution.
The fact is New York State has been losing population for a long while, including 180,341 persons between 2020 and 2022, causing New York’s congressional delegation falling to fourth place where once we were first. Clearly the issue of population loss is more complicated than outmigration.
For example, while Nassau County grew by 56,242 persons between 2010 and 2020, it still experienced a net loss 12,060 due to migration patterns, with 25,261 from international migration offset by domestic outmigration of 37,251 persons. Furthermore, between 2014 and 2018, Inter-county movers reported that 12,524 persons relocated to Nassau County, with 9,166 from Queens County, 1,641 from Monroe County, 1,434 from Kings County and 283 from Bronx County. Additionally, between 2016 and 2020 other movers took 51,427 Nassau County residents to other states or other New York counties, while 41,511 persons from different states and counties relocated to Nassau County, a net loss of 9,916 persons. Housing didn’t appear to be an issue in these cases.
Retiring Long Islanders leaving the region for less expensive places in the country, and younger folks not locating here to fill the void, have public officials advancing the idea that affordable housing options are not available to attract and retain young people. However, not discussed are other reasons, including the continuously increasing property taxes and fees, energy, child care and transportation costs and why companies with high-paying jobs won’t relocate here. Ironically, Hain Celestial Group, Long Island’s fifth largest publicly traded company, just announced it is leaving its Lake Success headquarters. Housing was not cited as the problem.
As for Millennials, a survey I conducted revealed their frustration with Long Island’s economy and Long Island itself. While they would like to remain on Long Island to do so would require the region address more than housing. Important to them to remain here were higher salaries, and the inability to find jobs aligned with their skills and with their salary expectations. However, while job fulfillment was important to Millennials, nearly three quarters felt that Long Island is unable to attract the high paying industries where they wish to work. Think how Amazon, wanting to bring high paying jobs to the region, had the welcome mat pulled from beneath them by New York State legislators. These are ominous indicators, since Millennials remaining on Long Island will become the regions new middle class.
Then there are the 60% of Generation Z workers who are likely to change jobs in 2023, an increase over the 53% just a year ago. Housing was not mentioned as a reason by them nor by nearly 50 million Americans who quit their jobs in 2023. Nor was housing an imperative to the 45% of Generation Z and 40% of Millennials who indicated that work-life balance was most important to them.
It’s too simplistic to believe that if you build housing the outmigration will end and Millennials and Generation Z will be attracted to Long Island. There are just too many other variables entering into a decision of where people will set down roots.
Martin Cantor is director of the Long Island Center for Socio-Economic Policy and a former Suffolk County economic development commissioner. He can be reached at [email protected].
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